Misperceiving Nationalism: Beliefs About Others’ Beliefs and Group Conformism in Foreign Polic

Nicholas Samabanis | Professor, University of Pennsylvania

Monday, September 26, 2022 12:15 PM to 1:30 PM

Abstract/Description

We develop and test a theory regarding the extent to which individual citizens base their expressed foreign policy preferences on available information about the preferences of their co-nationals and we seek to understand to what extent (mis)information about public opinion shapes both citizens' private preferences and the views they feel comfortable voicing in public. Public expressions of policy preferences are important because they reinforce others' perceptions of majority opinion; if citizens censor the views they express publicly, this could create a potentially false impression of the policies that are thought to be consistent with national identification. Such a pattern might be observed during periods when national identification is strongest (e.g., during foreign policy crises). Moreover, perceptions of public opinion are inherently manipulable by opinion leaders and the mass media, which can therefore shape policy preferences by cultivating (mis)perceptions about others' foreign policy preferences, thereby fueling a cycle of conformity. We explore whether perceptions of public opinion in the midst of a nationalist upsurge amplify group conformism and whether they can stimulate both escalation and de-escalation during periods of crisis.

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